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JANUARY 17,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

EARTH-SHAKING POLITICAL NEWS – There was a Democratic debate tonight.  Teams of Navy SEALS and Army Rangers have been dispatched to try to find anyone who watched.  There are rumors of an old guy in New Jersey.  So far, we haven't gotten much pundit reaction, except we hear that Bernie Sanders did well, Hillary did less well but held her own, and Martin O'Malley didn't tell anyone he was there.  The debate was scheduled opposite the NFL and "Downton Abbey."  It is reported that Bill Clinton was watching "Downton Abbey" throughout.  Has a thing for Lady Mary.  So I guess we'll have to wait for tomorrow for some serious analysis, if any is needed.  With two weeks to go before Iowa, the analysis will soon reflect actual voting.

LOWER EDUCATION – From the College Fix:   A professor and two graduate students in the University of Denver’s Department of Communications Studies today assert in an op-ed for college’s newspaper, The Clarion, that university emails regarding the November terrorist attacks in Paris were “biased towards white life.”  “It is our opinion that, despite these emails, DU participates in making its ‘marginalized communities’ feel unwelcomed because of an implicit bias toward white life not extended to the lives of nonwhite people. Our discussion of Paris is not meant to ignore the loss of life there, but to point out the valorization of white life assumed by DU,” they write.  Professor Armond R. Towns and graduate students Raisa Alvarado and Jamie Guzmán say the university shows “no concern with life returning to ‘normal’ when ‘terrorists’ attack Muslims,” and that “the assumption is that DU is most impacted by events that occur in Western countries,” not in, for example, “Mexico, Kenya, Baltimore, Palestine, or Baghdad.”  Last time I looked, Baltimore was in a Western country.  But who am I to challenge an alternative narrative?

KASICH ROMPS?  REALLY?  From the Washington Examiner:   The Nashua Telegraph endorsed John Kasich for the Republican nomination Sunday, an announcement that follows endorsements by two other New Hampshire papers during the week.  On Thursday, the Portsmouth Herald and the Foster's Daily Democrat endorsed Kasich for the nomination while also endorsing Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.  "Kasich is not the flashiest candidate in the field, but he has proven a highly effective leader both in Congress and as Ohio's top executive. In a race awash in half-truths and exaggerations, Kasich can stand on his record of accomplishment without the need to embellish it," Foster's and the Portsmouth Herald write in a joint editorial. The two papers share a publisher.  The Nashua Telegraph endorsed Mitt Romney in 2012, who went on to win New Hampshire and the GOP nomination.  If John Kasich's campaign for president is going to catch fire, it will be in New Hampshire. He polls best in the Grantite State out of any state other than his native Ohio, and he has invested heavily in succeeding there.   I doubt if these endorsements will have much impact.  Voters have seen Kasich, and they simply don't respond.  That's the bottom line.  There are plenty of people who'd vote against Abraham Lincoln because he had a high-pitched voice.

January 17, 2016       Permalink

THE U.S. SLAPS A WRIST – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  I guess the administration wants to show how "tough" it is.  This is not tough.  From AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States on Sunday imposed sanctions against 11 individuals and entities involved in Iran's ballistic missile program as a result of Tehran's firing of a medium-range ballistic missile, a new punishment one day after the Obama administration lifted economic penalties against the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program.

The missile program "poses a significant threat to regional and global security, and it will continue to be subject to international sanctions," said Adam J. Szubin, the Treasury's acting undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence in a statement.

He said the U.S. has made it clear that it will "vigorously press sanctions against Iranian activities" outside the terms of the nuclear agreement. Szubin cited Iran's "support for terrorism, regional destabilization, human rights abuses, and ballistic missile program."

COMMENT:  It's a slap on the wrist, but the statement was firm and correct.  Trouble is, Obama never backs firm words with firm action.  I'm not even sure Szubin's statement had the clearance of the White House.

We have a record with North Korea.  It is not good.  We signed a nuclear agreement with the Koreans, only to have them violate it repeatedly.  Our response?  Tough words, wrist slaps.

Failure repeats.

January 17, 2016      Permalink

CLINTON ROMPS IN NEW POLL – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:   We stress that polls are snapshots in time, and history shows that even the best-done polls can be way off in an unsettled political environment.  But a new, major poll is good news for Hillary.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Hillary Clinton is in close fights in Iowa and New Hampshire with rival Sen. Bernie Sanders, but is comfortably ahead in a national poll, 59 percent to 34 percent.

Clinton appears to have actually expanded her lead nationally, in this poll.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll was last published in December, when Clinton was up 19 percentage points. A new poll by the news organizations shows a 6-point bump for the Democratic front-runner despite media focus on Sanders' challenge to her campaign.

Clinton leads with men, 51 percent to 43 percent, and women, 65 percent to 27 percent.

Iowa and New Hampshire remain precarious for the former secretary of state. Victories by Sanders in both states could imperil her national advantage.

COMMENT:  And that, of course, is the caveat.  Hillary's campaign hits regular bumps, and losing both Iowa and New Hampshire would be big ones.  Also, there is a lag between the time a poll is started and the time it's reported.  Bernie has had a good week, Hillary so-so.

There's a Democratic debate today, competing with the NFL and "Downton Abbey."  Let's see who watches and how the candidates perform. 

This is not over.  The voting in Iowa begins in two weeks.

January 17, 2016       Permalink

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES – AT 10:50 A.M. ET:  I wonder if any of the geniuses who negotiated the Iran nuclear agreement thought about the economic implications.  From Bloomberg:

Stocks across the Middle East tumbled as the easing of sanctions against Iran raised the prospect of a surge in oil supplies to a market already reeling from the lowest prices in more than a decade. Shares in Tehran gained.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dropped 5.4 percent to its lowest level since March 2011. Abu Dhabi’s ADX General Index fell into a so-called bear market. The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index, which tracks 200 of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council’s biggest companies, traded at 9.5 times estimated 12-month earnings, the lowest in almost seven years. Iran’s TEDPIX Index climbed 0.9 percent, according to data on the bourse’s website, extending Saturday’s 2.1 percent advance.

Iran, home to almost 10 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, is starting preparations to boost exports after the United Nation’s nuclear agency on Saturday said the country has complied with the terms of an international agreement to curb its nuclear program. That threatens to put further pressure on prices, hurting the oil-dependent economies of the GCC.

COMMENT:  Obviously, we love to save money at the pump.  And pump prices for Americans have plunged in the last year because of ample supplies and the oil extraction boom in our own country.  We have been heading toward energy independence.

But there's a downside.  The plunge in prices is putting severe economic pressure on many of the new companies engaged in oil exploration in America.  Some have shut down.  Bankruptcies are expected.  Where will that leave our drive for energy independence?

And the Obamans, with their contempt for fossil fuels, don't seem to care.  They see petroleum exploration as an enemy, not the tremendous asset that it is.

Our economy is in danger. 

Recession?  From what I've been reading, maybe.

January 17,  2016     Permalink

JANUARY 16,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:48 P.M. ET: 

IS THIS HILLARY? – Hillary has groveled to the left wing of her party recently, with no results.  Leftists support leftists like Bernie Sanders, period.  Now Hillary is starting to sound centrist, perhaps believing that the left is lost but that moderate Democrats will assert themselves and hand her the nomination.   She welcomed today's announcement of Iran's release of U.S. prisoners and the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, but with centrist-sounding caveats.  From Weekly Standard, quoting Hillary:   But we shouldn't thank Iran for the prisoners or for following through on its obligations. These prisoners were held unjustly by a regime that continues to threaten the peace and security of the Middle East....The treatment of our Navy sailors earlier this week was offensive, including the release of a demeaning and provocative video. Iran is still violating UN Security Council resolutions with its ballistic missile program, which should be met with new sanctions designations and firm resolve.  So we can't take our eye off the ball. As President, my approach will be to distrust and verify. I will vigorously enforce the nuclear deal as part of a comprehensive strategy that confronts all of Iran's negative actions in the region and stand side-by-side with our ally Israel and our Arab partners.  "Distrust and verify."  Good language from Hillary.  Tougher than either Field Marshal Obama or Grand Admiral Kerry.   We'll watch Hillary this week and see if this tone continues.

SCARY – From London's Express:  Free-thinking artificial-intelligence robots could end up destroying mankind or even completely change what it means to be human if we let them think for themselves, a scientist has warned.   We don't need robots.  We have liberals for that.

HOW PATHETIC – How low does it go?  From the Washington Times:   The White House said Friday it was not troubled by Iran’s exploitation of a video showing captured U.S. sailors blindfolded and kneeling at gunpoint by Iranian forces.  “I don’t think there’s any reason for anybody to be embarrassed,” said White House press secretary Josh Earnest. “We’re pleased that our sailors were released promptly and unharmed.”  Mr. Earnest said Iran’s showing of the video does not violate the Geneva Conventions, which prohibits the exploitation of prisoners of war, because the U.S. and Iran are not at war.  Then why were our sailors forced to kneel, with their hands behind their heads?  This White House is disgraceful. 

ECONOMIC SIGN – From The New York Times:   Walmart, whose supercenters once transformed the way Americans shop, announced on Friday that it would close a record number of stores in the United States and overseas, as it fights to hold its ground in a retail landscape under siege by the behemoth Amazon.  The giant retailer, based in Bentonville, Ark., said in a statement that it would shutter 154 stores in the United States, or about 3 percent of its locations, as well as 115 stores overseas. It will also end its Walmart Express small-store format, which failed to catch on in urban areas. As many as 10,000 employees could lose their jobs in the United States and 6,000 elsewhere, it added.  How do you like the economic recovery?

January 16,  2016     Permalink

HILLARY WOBBLY – AT 12:18 P.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton's campaign appears to be stalling, in the face of a challenge by an elderly socialist from Vermont who honeymooned in the old Soviet Union.  You can't make this up.  From Fox: 

New national polling is showing Bernie Sanders gaining ground on Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, casting into doubt Clinton as the inevitable nominee for the party, and recalling the 2008 race where Clinton was eventually beaten by underdog Barack Obama.

Despite a 30 percent-plus lead over Sanders in the summer in many polls, Clinton's lead has shrunk drastically in recent months as she continues to be dogged by doubts about her candidacy, while Sanders continues to gain strength in key states and across the U.S.

With key votes in Iowa and New Hampshire just weeks away, Clinton's apparent firm hold on the nomination seems to be slipping away.

Polls now show Sanders with a comfortable lead in New Hampshire. A Fox News Poll released last week showed Sanders with a commanding 13 point lead in the Granite State, with a 50-37 point margin. The poll shows a stunning increase for Sanders, who was only one point ahead in a similar poll in November.

Meanwhile in Iowa, Clinton's once solid lead is dwindling and it seems the Hawkeye State is up for grabs. The Real Clear Politics average shows Clinton with a four point lead, with some polls showing the two tied and a recent Quinnipiac poll actually showing Sanders with a five point lead.

Should Sanders win the coveted prizes of both Iowa and New Hampshire, it would hand him momentum going into trickier states such as South Carolina, and would raise serious questions about Clinton's ability to secure the nomination.

It isn’t just in the vital states of Iowa and New Hampshire where Clinton’s lead is narrowing – polls are showing Sanders gaining ground nationally.

The latest Fox News Poll showed Clinton with a 15 point lead nationally. That’s down from a 25 point advantage as recently as two months ago, suggesting the race is tightening and that Sanders may be a serious concern for the Clinton camp.

COMMENT:  Conventional wisdom holds that Sanders is strictly a northern candidate, and that Clinton will catch up and defeat him as the primaries move south, into states, like South Carolina, which have large black populations.  Sanders currently has little standing among African Americans.

But there is the matter of that FBI investigation into Clinton's activities at the State Department.  If that turns out badly for Hillary, Dems will look around urgently for an alternative.  I doubt if they'll look closely at Bernie.  More likely, as we've noted here before,  they'll turn to Joe Biden, at Obama's insistence. 

What is striking is Hillary's weakness.  The stories picturing her as dishonest and greedy have taken their toll. 

January 16, 2015       Permalink

AND MORE TERROR – AT 11:52 A.M.  This time in the west African nation of Burkina Faso.  But remember, it has nothing to do with the teachings of any group.  From CNN:

(CNN) Attackers raided a luxury hotel in Burkina Faso overnight, opening fire and seizing hostages in an hours-long siege that ended with at least 23 people dead.

An al Qaeda-linked terrorist group claimed responsibility for the assault at Splendid Hotel -- a popular meeting place for Western diplomats in the capital, Ouagadougou.

The attack began Friday night and dragged on under the cover of darkness. Security forces circled the perimeter to assess the situation before they stormed in hours later.

"Everyone was panicked and was lying down on the floor. There was blood everywhere, they were shooting at people at point blank," said Yannick Sawadogo, who survived the siege.

Security forces entered the hotel early Saturday and freed 126 hostages, half of whom were hospitalized, said Alpha Barry, the nation's foreign minister.

The 23 people killed were of 18 nationalities, according to security minister Simon Compaore.

At least four attackers were killed, including two women, he said. It was unclear whether their deaths were included in the figure of 23 people killed.

The French Foreign Ministry, whose troops helped in the rescue operation, said 27 people died.

COMMENT:  Have you noticed how relentless terror has been recently?  One attack after another, in many different countries.  A number of intelligence experts, especially in France, are warning of a bad 2016.

And we will have Obama "leading" us for another year.

January 16, 2015       Permalink 

IRAN RELEASES AMERICAN HOSTAGES – AT 11:25 A.M. ET:  It is a happy event, but we should also be revolted.  We are being played like a violin by the Iranian regime.  But Obama will take the credit, and be given the credit by an obedient press.  From the Washington Examiner:

Iran released four prisoners Saturday, including jailed Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian.

All four of those released are Iranian-American dual nationals, including Rezaian. He has had been in Iranian custody since July 2014.

The release was apparently part of a prisoner swap with the United States, according to several reports.

Rezaian was convicted of espionage against the Iranian state and "propaganda against the establishment" in October 2015. In November 2015 he was sentenced to a prison term of undisclosed length.

The prisoner release caps a harrowing week for U.S.-Iran relations. Iran temporarily captured of 10 U.S. sailors Tuesday. The Iranian nuclear deal set to be formally put into place in the coming days.

Iran's Fars News Agency reported that in addition to Rezaian, the freed prisoners are former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati, Christian pastor Saeed Abedini and a fourth American-Iranian national.

Robert Levenson, an American who reportedly went missing in Iran, was not part of the exchange, and his whereabouts remain unknown.

The Washington Post's David Ignatius stated regarding Rezaian's release, "Relief...and anger he was ever held."

COMMENT:  How we are played.  These prisoners should have been released as a condition for holding nuclear talks with Iran in the first place.  Instead, they're being released now, on the weekend when the Iran nuclear deal will be implemented, to show "good will" by Iran.  Earlier this week Iran showed its "good will" by taking American sailors prisoner, humiliating them, then releasing them, showing "good will."

Just a few weeks earlier, Tehran tested two ICBM's.  ICBM's exist only to carry nuclear warheads, the very warheads Iran pledges it will not develop under the nuclear agreement.  Our response to the tests has been almost nothing.

They must be laughing in Tehran.  They've been laughing in North Korea for years.

Sanctions on the country are about to be lifted.  The mullah regime will have an estimated $150-billion to put into their military and terror programs. 

Meanwhile, Republicans in the US will be made to look small as they try to warn Americans that the nuclear agreement about to be implemented is a very bad deal.   The Iranians work on the Leninist model – two steps forward, one step back.  The children running the U.S. Government, and the European Union, only notice the step back, calling it "good will." 

Trade will now flow between Iran and Europe, and even between Iran and the United States.  When money flows, politicians listen.  There will be increasing reluctance to hold Iran to the terms of the nuclear deal, weak as they are.  Profits matter.

We await Iran's next humiliation of the United States.  They can learn the steps from their North Korean friends.

January 16,  2015      Permalink